On the 2nd March 2023, the government published its SEND and AP Improvement Plan.
This is the government’s response to the Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) and Alternative Provision (AP) Green Paper which was published 29th March 2022. The Green Paper highlighted the issues around intervention for SEND pupils, resulting in costly placements for pupils and increased demand for Educational, Health, and Care Plans (EHCPs). Parents and carers raised concerns that children were not guaranteed the right support, increasing the demand for formal EHCPs.
The DfE aims to improve outcomes for SEND pupils whilst reducing spending deficits. The Green Paper proposed that local authority funding should be increased along with “greater expectations of strategic spending”. The DfE also outlined in the Green Paper that they wanted a more AP-focused early intervention, along with a new performance table for AP.
To improve the strategic planning for pupils with SEND, the SEND & AP Improvement Plan outlines that all local authorities will now be required to submit information on the capacities of special schools and SEN units/resourced provision in mainstream school, as well as forecasts of the numbers of specialist placements local authorities expect to make in SEN units/resourced provision, special schools (of all types) and AP. These data will be submitted as part of the existing annual School Capacity Survey (SCAP) collection, starting from summer 2023.
Via the annual SCAP, local authorities are already required to submit information on the capacity of mainstream schools, plus forecasts for pupils in mainstream schools. This is the first time local authorities will be expected to submit information on SEND capacity and forecasts for specialist placements.
The Plan also explains that the DfE will support local authorities in assessing the capacity of special schools via tools due to be released in the spring.
How can Edge help?
Edge Analytics has developed its edge-ucate SEN forecasting model to support local authorities in planning for SEND, providing forecasts of pupils with SEND by area, year group, SEND type and school type. Benchmarked against the forecasts, we are also able to incorporate information on SEND capacity, helping local authorities visualise the shortage or surplus of placements for SEND places.
Using the latest available evidence on pupils with SEND and the schools they attend, together with key evidence on demographic change and planning housing development, the model provides intelligence on the current and future profile of pupils with an EHCP. This profile is delivered via a series of detailed outputs for local authorities, including interactive reports and accompanying documentation.
We tailor our work to the requirements of the local authority and use methodology and terminology that aligns with SCAP guidance by the DfE. Though the SCAP 2023 guidance is not currently available, we continually ensure that our work meets the DfE’s methodological requirements.
Please get in touch if you want to know more about our pupil projection capabilities