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edge-ucate Pupil Projections.

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Education planning teams within Local Authorities across the UK rely on our edge-ucate pupil projection services to inform their school-place planning activities, ensuring the provision of adequate pupil places. We use historical evidence on pupil numbers in combination with our demographic forecasting models to provide estimates for the following:


  • Pupils in mainstream schools

  • Pupils with Special Educational Needs (SEN)

  • Pupils in Alternative Provision (AP)

  •  Children in Early Years settings

  • Pupil yield factors.

Estimates of pupils in mainstream schools and pupils with SEN can be used by Local Authorities to inform their annual school capacity survey (SCAP) return.

Our methodology.

edge-ucate is a modelling framework for pupil forecasting, developed by Edge Analytics to support local authorities in their school place planning activities. We input historical data on pupil numbers and apply assumptions on the impacts of migration and planned housing developments to produce forecasts for a range of scenarios and timeframes.


Forecasts provided may include:


  • A base scenario that assumes that there will be no change in the size of pupil cohorts over time.

  • A migration scenario that includes the impacts of migration on cohort size

  • A housing scenario that includes the impacts of planned housing on cohort size

  • A migration+housing scenario that includes the impacts of migration and planned housing, combining the migration assumptions of the migration scenario with the housing and pupil yield assumptions of the housing scenario.


We can provide forecasts aggregated to pupil planning area, ward, district, and county level to support education planning decisions and inform regulatory submissions.

Questions we can


How many mainstream school places will we need in our region?


How will planned housing developments impact the demand for school places?


How many SEN and AP students can we expect in the coming years?

Our clients.

“The edge-ucate software is an integral part of the school place planning process in Surrey - no question is ever beyond the expertise of the team at Edge Analytics and their support is invaluable to us.”

Surrey County Council

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