CASE STUDY: SHMA DEMOGRAPHIC EVIDENCE
Client: Thames Gateway South Essex Authorities
Edge Analytics were commissioned by South Essex authorities of Basildon, Castle Point, Rochford, Southend-On-Sea and Thurrock in partnership with Turley Associates to prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA).
The project required an analysis of the Greater London Authority (GLA) population forecasts. The GLA model makes difficult migration assumptions on the flow of population from the capital to the Thames Gateway Districts.
How these alternative forecasts compare and align to the official ONS projections needed to be considered to make a robust assessment on the housing requirements for all five districts.
An assessment of local economic policies and drivers and how these might affect the profile of the workforce population, were also required as part of this project.
Edge Analytics developed a suite of demographic scenarios for the Thames Gateway authorities using the POPGROUP and the Derived Forecast model to draw data from a number of sources, building an historical picture of population, households, fertility, morality and migration on which to base its scenario forecasts.
The Derived Forecast model provides a headship rate model for household projections and an economic activity rate model for labour-force projections.
Using historical data evidence for 2001-2015, in conjunction with information from Office for National Statistics (ONS) subnational population projections (SNPPs) and Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) household projections, a series of assumptions were derived which drove the scenario forecasts.