Providing SHMA demographic evidence for Thames Gateway South Essex Authorities

Edge Analytics were commissioned by the South Essex authorities of Basildon, Castle Point, Rochford, Southend-on-Sea and Thurrock in partnership with Turley Associates to prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA). The project required an analysis of the Greater London Authority (GLA) population forecasts, plus an assessment of local economic policies and drivers and the potential effects of these on the profile of the workplace population. 

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The GLA model makes complex migration assumptions on the flow of population from the capital to the Thames Gateway Districts. To make a robust assessment on the housing requirements for all five districts, these alternative forecasts must be compared to the official ONS projections.

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Using our demographic forecasting technology alongside our Derived Forecast Model, we developed a suite of demographic scenarios for the Thames Gateway Authorities. Data was drawn from a number of sources, including historical data, information from Office for National Statistics (ONS) subnational population projections (SNPPs) and Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) household projections. From these, we were able to build a historical picture of population, households, fertility, mortality and migration, forming the basis for our scenario forecasts.