Demographic forecasting for Northumberland National Park Authority

Northumberland National Park is the northernmost national park in England, covering approximately 1,049km in the unitary authority of Northumberland. 

The Northumberland National Park Authority were required to draft their Local Plan, detailing housing demand, land supply and housing targets for the Park over an extended plan period. 

Edge Analytics provided evidence from a variety of sources, including demographic estimates and projections, workforce data, household income, house price, housing land supply, housing stock and affordable need estimates. Using historical evidence from published ONS and DCLG demographic statistics, scenarios were developed for the area covered by the National Park. Demographic information for the area was derived from unitary authority, ward-level and Census Output Area statistics.

The projections produced by Edge included a ‘dwelling growth’ scenario, in which population growth is determined by the increase in the number of dwellings linked to historical housing completions (for example, at a rate of +5 dwellings per year). A ‘natural change’ scenario was also included, which evaluated population growth in the absence of migration (i.e. considering births and deaths only).