CASE STUDY: SUB-DISTRICT POPULATION FORECASTS
Client: Craven District Council
In early 2016, Craven District Council commissioned Edge Analytics to provide a range of alternative demographic scenario forecasts to inform the Local Plan review.
Since the previous demographic analysis was produced, many new datasets were published. In May 2016, the ONS 2014- based SNPP was released, followed by the 2014-based DCLG household projections in July 2016. Also available were additional mid-year population statistics (2014 and 2015), providing an update of the new historical time frame from which to draw new trend-based assumptions.
Following a consideration of the emerging Local Plan, the Council requested an update to the scenario evidence produced for its four sub-district geographies, using the latest demographic data available.
Edge Analytics used POPGROUP and the Derived Forecast model to enable forecasts to be developed or population, households, labour force and jobs. These forecasts then incorporated the latest demographic evidence including mid-year population estimates to 2015; 2014 SNPP from ONS and DCLG’s 2014-based household projection model assumptions.
Edge Analytics produced several alternative scenario projections including the 2012 and 2014 SNPP based forecasts, and revised five and ten-year projections, making use of the latest mid-year population estimates. Natural change and employment-led scenarios were also produced.
In regards of household forecasting, Edge Analytics looked at data and assumptions to be drawn directly from the 2014-based household model from DCLG, with forecasts compared directly to those based upon the 2012-based model for all sub district areas.