CASE STUDY: DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTING
Client: Belfast City Council
"We have worked jointly with Edge Analytics on all of our housing evidence over the last 9 years. We have always found the demographic modelling outputs they provide of the highest quality. Clients appreciate their capacity to interpret complex datasets and go the extra mile to provide robust advice"
In April 2015, Belfast City Council assumed responsibility for matters relating to the local development plan. This included decisions on the possible future scale and distribution of population/housing across the Local Government District (LGD).
Belfast City Council published a tender document, seeking independent specialist advice to inform the appropriate population and housing growth for the Belfast Local Development Plan (LDP).
In responding to the tender, Edge Analytics were asked to provide the demographic expertise to the project, with the main body of the LDP recommendations the responsibility of Turley Associates.
Using the POPGROUP software, Edge Analytics compiled demographic evidence for Belfast and Northern Ireland’s other LGDs, providing the basis for an analysis of the historical patterns and trends in population and household change.
Edge Analytics configured its POPGROUP demographic forecasting software to first, replicate the latest LGD projections from NISRA and second, to develop a range of alternative scenarios linked to future economic change.
Edge Analytics worked in partnership with Turley Associates to compile appropriate output and documentation to support each stage of development of the Belfast LDP analysis.
The POPGROUP technology has been used by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) itself to derive its 2012-based LGD population and household projections and the forthcoming 2014-based LGD population projections.