CASE STUDY: ELECTORAL FORECASTS
Client: Cornwall Council
To support future consultations with the Local Government Boundary Commission for England (LGBCE), Cornwall Council sought to commission an evidence-based forecast of the likely growth in Cornwall’s local electorate to 2023.
In developing the forecasts, the Council required estimates of future population growth to be linked directly to the expected growth in new homes and their planned distribution across the County. Forecasts were required for a range of geographies, including electoral divisions, parishes and polling districts. To ensure robustness and transparency of approach, full documentation on methodology, inputs and assumptions was essential
Using historical evidence from published ONS and DCLG demographic statistics, POPGROUP technology was used to derive forecasts of the size of the electoral population in each of Cornwall’s 122 local government electoral divisions.
These forecasts were combined with Edge Analytics’ VICUS suite of software to derive population growth outcomes for smaller geographies (parishes and polling districts), retaining consistency with the larger areas. The forecasts were housing-led, driven by information on planned new housing, identified by postcode, capacity and expected timing of development. Forecasting outputs enable consideration of the future size and shape of electoral divisions, taking full account of the planned development of new homes.
Edge Analytics used existing technical guidance from the LGBCE to ensure appropriate methods and statistical outputs were delivered to Cornwall Council. The combination of POPGROUP and VICUS technology enables alternative housing growth trajectories to be configured, taking account of different rates and/or distribution of future new homes.