CASE STUDY: NATIONAL PARK DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTING
Client: Pembrokeshire Coast National Park Authority
In 2018, Pembrokeshire Coast National Park Authority commissioned Edge Analytics to provide demographic evidence to inform its Local Development Plan (LDP).
The Welsh Government (WG) publishes population and household projections for the three National Parks in Wales. Since the publication of the WG 2014-based projections, mid-year population estimates and components of population change had been published for later years.
In light of the new evidence, Pembrokeshire Coast National Park Authority requested that a range of demographic scenarios were formulated, for comparison with the official WG 2014-based projections and for consideration within its LDP.
The historical demographic profile of the Pembrokeshire Coast National Park was presented and used to develop a range of trend scenarios using POPGROUP forecasting technology. The demographic trend scenarios considered the impact of a continuation of variant migration histories, plus fertility and mortality assumptions upon future housing requirements in the National Park.
In addition, four housing-led scenarios were considered using growth targets based on new home completions within the Pembrokeshire Coast National Park over a ten-year historical period.
The analysis considered the population change, migration, housing growth and changing age profile of the National Park under each of the scenarios, alongside the WG projections. The evidence presented informed the Pembrokeshire Coast National Park Authority in planning for change over its sixteen years LDP horizon.