Demographic forecasting for Pembrokeshire Coast National Park Authority

Pembrokeshire Coast National Park Authority commissioned Edge Analytics to formulate a range of demographic projections, both for comparison with the official Welsh Government 2014-based projections and to inform its Local Development Plan.

 

Edge used the historical demographic profile of the Pembrokeshire Coast National Park to develop a range of trend scenarios. The demographic trend scenarios, produced using Edge Analytics’ proprietary forecasting technology, considered the impact of variant migration histories, fertility and mortality assumptions upon future housing requirements in the National Park.

Edge also formulated four housing-led scenarios, using growth targets based on new home completions within the National Park area over a ten-year historical period.

The analysis considered the population change, migration, housing growth and changing age profile of the National Park under each scenario, alongside the Welsh Government projections. The evidence from this analysis informed the National Park Authority’s planning for change over its sixteen-year Local Development Plan horizon.