“When society requires to be rebuilt - there is no use
in attempting to rebuild it on the old plan”
MICRO-LOCATION FORECASTING FOR SERVICE PLANNING
PLANNING FOR CHANGE
Demographic change will drive considerable population growth and change in the UK over the next 25 years. A sustained period of new housing growth, ageing population profiles, increasing diversity and a reducing average household size are key considerations for planners and policy makers.
For service planning, understanding how local populations will change in the future is key, with demographic forecasting models providing an essential component of evidence development.
However, whilst forecasting models can routinely provide robust and detailed statistics on population change for macro areas, it is the micro-location of new housing developments and the demographic impact of these that are of increasing interest.
Local Plans provide the key source of evidence on future housing growth intentions. This data provides an aggregate growth target for each local authority, in combination with detailed development site allocations for local community areas.
VICUS is Edge Analytics' micro-location demographic forecasting model. With VICUS, detailed information on future housing growth is used to inform scenarios of population and household growth, for comparison with trend scenarios. Housing growth plans typically provide most geographical detail over a 5–15-year horizon, with less certainty thereafter, although more aggregate housing growth targets typically exist for a longer 15 or 20-year outlook.
VICUS technology accommodates these differences in scale and timing, combining local authority and micro-location statistics to provide both a top-down and bottom-up perspective on future demographic change.
VICUS is of particular relevance to the energy and water industries, where the micro location of new development and its impact upon population distribution are key to the strategic development of asset infrastructure to meet consumer demand.