The specialists
in demographic modelling

Scenario Planning

"What-if?" demographics
A what-if? scenario capability is a key component of evidence-based planning. Variant projections provide sensitivity analysis around alternative fertility, mortality and migration assumptions. Policy-based scenarios constrain population projections to evaluate planned developments or to assess alternative economic forecasts. Presented with an uncertain future, 'most-likely' outcomes are drawn from a series of scenarios, based on sound historical data and a robust assessment of alternative trajectories.

Supply & Demand
Understanding the interaction between 'supply and demand' is vital when planning future product and service delivery. The spatial interaction model replicates consumer behaviour; measuring the size and profile of local populations; reproducing their daily trips to work and shop, for health care, school or other services. Scenario modelling enables an evaluation of changing demographics and its impact upon how, when and where services are likely to be needed and provided in the future.

Most likely
Whether using demographic forecasting models, spatial interaction models, optimisation models or maybe a combination of all three, the derivation of a 'most-likely' scenario is the goal. The ability to test a very large number of alternative scenarios becomes a powerful tool to achieve this goal. Scenarios can typically have an infinite number of permutations; changing individual assumptions, evaluating alternative locations or setting different constraints. The rapid evaluation of a very large number of model scenarios can guide planners towards a robustly defined most-likely solution.