The specialists
in demographic modelling

Demographic Forecasting

What is demographic forecasting?
Populations evolve as a result of variations in fertility, mortality and migration, which in turn may be influenced by many external factors. Population projection models use recent evidence on births, deaths and migrant flows to produce robust estimates of the makeup of future populations based on the likely combined impact of natural change and net-migration.

Why is demographic forecasting important?
Demographic change is a key issue for the 21st century. The changing size and profile of populations is a matter of much concern for policy makers, business and society generally. Scenario Planning, using modelling methods to evaluate alternative population outcomes that result from both demographic trends and policy initiatives should underpin all national, regional and local decision-making.

What is demographic ageing?
Low levels of fertility and continuous improvements in life expectancy are ageing populations at an unprecedented rate. 2010 marked a turning point as the first of the baby boomers born in the 1945-1970 period turned 65. In the next 25 years, as progressively more people move into old age the implications for health care, wealth distribution, pension provision, housing, transport and employment will become increasingly acute.

Edge Analytics provides demographic analysis and population forecasts at all spatial scales using administrative areas or bespoke geographical units. In addition, Edge Analytics can provide a quality assurance service, to evaluate the suitability and robustness of an organisation's existing data and methods of demographic analysis. Its research activities have focused on the critical impact of migration upon population change in local areas.

POPGROUP
The POPGROUP suite of models provides a robust and reliable analytical framework for the management of demographic data and for the formulation of population, household and labour force projections and forecasts. With over 100 registered users, POPGROUP has an established user community. It uses Microsoft Excel technology to provide a powerful demographic modelling capability that integrates with a user's PC desk-top.

Edge Analytics provides full technical support to POPGROUP users.