“Age is not a particularly interesting subject. Anyone can get old.
All you need to do is live long enough.”
During the last 100 years, the world's population growth has been greater than at any other time in its history. The population of the world has more than doubled since the 1960s, exceeding 7 billion in 2014, and is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, before levelling off. Whilst disparities in population growth remain, low levels of fertility and continuous improvements in life expectancy are ageing the world's population at an unprecedented rate.
By 2040, the 65+ population will number 1.3 billion, 14% of the total. In the UK, 2010 marked a turning point as the first of the baby boomers born between 1945 and 1970 turned 65. In the next quarter century, as population cohorts move into the older ages, there will be even greater ageing with wide-ranging implications for health care, wealth distribution, pension provision, housing, transport and employment policies.
WHAT IS DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTING?
Populations evolve as a result of variations in fertility, mortality and migration, which in turn may be influenced by many external factors. Population projection models use recent evidence on births, deaths and migrant flows to produce robust estimates of the makeup of future populations based on the likely combined impact of natural change (births and deaths) and net migration.
WHY IS DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTING IMPORTANT?
Demographic change is a key issue for the 21st century. The changing size and profile of populations is a matter of much concern for policy makers, business and society generally. Scenario Planning, using modelling methods to evaluate alternative population outcomes that result from both demographic trends and policy initiatives should underpin all national, regional and local decision-making.
Edge Analytics provides demographic analysis and population forecasts at all spatial scales using administrative areas or bespoke geographical units. In addition, Edge Analytics can provide a quality assurance service, to evaluate the suitability and robustness of an organisation's existing data and methods of demographic analysis. Its research activities have focused on the critical impact of migration upon population change in local areas.